Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 4.661795 5.574710 6.590226 7.799471 9.195785 10.752965 12.616270
2025-02-23 3.179063 4.297595 5.672977 7.471739 9.743329 12.496402 16.062684
2025-03-02 2.263403 3.408325 4.943595 7.116305 10.068990 13.893539 19.164721
2025-03-09 1.765016 2.920006 4.588411 7.111127 10.752186 15.727435 22.928974
2025-03-16 1.419895 2.559233 4.318792 7.139021 11.426827 17.558201 26.805127
2025-03-23 1.153937 2.254677 4.063575 7.121310 11.992452 19.243733 30.579099
2025-03-30 0.899981 1.908795 3.673223 6.816434 12.055971 20.161890 33.271254
2025-04-06 0.749083 1.711256 3.490539 6.809939 12.565040 21.767216 37.084632
2025-04-13 0.622205 1.529400 3.300567 6.754457 12.969899 23.220064 40.744527
2025-04-20 0.567162 1.481870 3.349417 7.124882 14.125553 25.958434 46.621218
2025-04-27 0.505530 1.405601 3.328054 7.356583 15.050383 28.371701 52.116368
2025-05-04 0.462709 1.362621 3.365681 7.701608 16.204387 31.244663 58.543883
2025-05-11 0.393268 1.241165 3.223572 7.682102 16.699234 33.049068 63.350585
2025-05-18 0.318051 1.084558 2.976635 7.413021 16.688512 33.957142 66.676872
2025-05-25 0.252899 0.935395 2.717495 7.077588 16.504461 34.524868 69.426689
2025-06-01 0.216559 0.858934 2.618166 7.078341 16.993203 36.362279 74.554056
2025-06-08 0.187070 0.794602 2.537089 7.108115 17.540787 38.342359 80.052499
2025-06-15 0.160146 0.729870 2.442364 7.091138 17.982947 40.142661 85.313777
2025-06-22 0.127882 0.634176 2.242773 6.787597 17.763426 40.617202 88.086561
2025-06-29 0.109855 0.584983 2.165791 6.781198 18.205643 42.442542 93.550023
2025-07-06 0.093241 0.534795 2.075304 6.725943 18.527531 44.038329 98.647712
2025-07-13 0.088563 0.534260 2.139607 7.095031 19.878446 47.854144 108.332741
2025-07-20 0.081185 0.518849 2.153216 7.325897 20.916869 51.069844 116.970232